Research · All
Read the data as signal.
Twelve market reads: liquidity and cycles, risk and probability, where the candlestick and Dow Theory came from, and the limits of technical analysis — the logic behind the data, all in one place.
MARKETSMarkets
Liquidity: the market's real gravity
Price is what you see; liquidity is what lets the price exist at all. From order-book depth, spreads and slippage, understand how liquidity fills up in calm and evaporates under stress.
MARKETSMarkets
The pendulum of cycles and sentiment
Markets swing between greed and fear and rarely rest at the middle. Reading cycles isn't about timing the top — it's about knowing which end of the pendulum you're standing on.
MARKETSMarkets
The illusion of correlation: why assets crash together
Diversification works in calm and fails in crisis. When liquidity dries up everywhere at once, correlations race toward 1 and your hedges fall together.
CRAFTThe Craft
The art of losing well
The most important thing a trader does is not to win, but to shrink every loss into something bearable and repeatable.
CRAFTThe Craft
Thinking in probabilities
There is no certainty in markets, only distributions. Learn to bet on odds and expected value instead of staking conviction on 'I think it'll go up.'
CRAFTThe Craft
Process over outcome
A winning trade can be a bad decision; a losing trade can be a good one. Use a trading journal to separate decision from luck — that's how you actually improve.
CHARTCRAFTChartcraft
Homma and the birth of the candlestick
An eighteenth-century Japanese rice merchant, Munehisa Homma, kept price records at the Dojima Rice Exchange and, almost by accident, invented the candlestick chart now on screens worldwide.
CHARTCRAFTChartcraft
Dow Theory: the bedrock of technical analysis
Charles Dow never wrote a book called 'Dow Theory,' yet his turn-of-the-century editorials laid down the basic assumptions of an entire discipline.
CHARTCRAFTChartcraft
From ticker tape to GPU: a century of the price chart
From the clicking ticker tape to hand-drawn point-and-figure to today's GPU-rendered millions of candles, the medium changed — the human doing the reading did not.
LONG READLong Read
Anatomy of a bubble
Tulips, the South Sea, the internet, crypto — bubbles change their clothes but keep the same skeleton. A dissection of the five acts that recur.
LONG READLong Read
Pricing the black swan
Markets spend most of their time pricing 'normal' and keep getting hit by 'impossible.' Understand tail risk, and why cheap insurance so often goes unbought.
LONG READLong Read
Can charts lie? The limits of technical analysis
Technical analysis is neither a crystal ball nor astrology. Draw the line around what it can and cannot do, and you can use it as an honest tool.