CRAFT The Craft · March 2026 · ~5 min

Thinking in probabilities

There is no "certainly" in markets, only a distribution of probabilities. Trade "I think it'll go up" for "roughly what are the odds this wins, how much if it does, how much if it doesn't," and you turn from a forecaster into a bettor — and a bettor cares about expected value.

Beyond right and wrong lie the odds

A high hit rate doesn't mean profit. A strategy that's right 30% of the time but wins three-to-one is profitable over the long run; one that's right 70% of the time but wins one and loses three is not. What decides your P&L is the product of hit rate and payoff — the expected value.

A good decision can still have a bad outcome — that's not a contradiction, that's probability.

Three habits

• Ranges, not points: not "it will reach X," but "it likely lands between X and Y";
• Room for uncertainty: position size reflects your confidence, not your emotion;
• Look at the long sample: a single win or loss is noise; the distribution of a hundred is signal.

Once you accept uncertainty, you act more calmly — because you no longer need "this one" to be right.