CRAFT The Craft · March 2026 · ~4 min

Process over outcome

A winning trade can be a bad decision; a losing trade can be a good one. In the short run, outcome is decided by decision and luck together. If you judge yourself by P&L alone, you'll keep learning the wrong lessons from luck.

The trap of outcome bias

Assuming you were right because you won is the most dangerous self-deception. It rewards lucky bad habits — chasing, holding losers, betting big on news. The only way to break it is to change the yardstick from "did this make money" to "did this decision follow my plan."

Judging a decision by its outcome is like judging whether you brought an umbrella by the weather.

A journal separates the two

Write down, for each trade: the reason for entry, the risk, the plan — and later, score "decision quality" and "outcome" separately. Keep at it and you'll see where your real edge hides, usually not where you thought.

• Good decision + good outcome: repeat;
• Good decision + bad outcome: accept, continue;
• Bad decision + good outcome: beware, don't copy;
• Bad decision + bad outcome: fix.